In the Jreferendum, 17.4 million voters, or 51.9 percent, backed leaving the EU while 16.1 million, or 48.1 percent, backed staying. It is far from clear how the United Kingdom would vote if given another chance.Īn often chaotic set of votes in parliament last week has shown that none of the alternatives to May’s deal - such as leaving with no deal, a referendum or allowing parliament to decide how to leave - can muster a majority among lawmakers yet. To avoid that, May could call a snap election, though her party does not want one.Īnother option, being pushed by some lawmakers is a referendum on May’s Brexit deal, though such a vote, were it ever called, would effectively become a referendum on EU membership.Ģ) BREXIT REFERENDUM - May’s deal fails and a long delay allows the campaign for another referendum to gain momentum. Lawmakers could seek indicative votes on a way forward and there might be a majority for a softer Brexit than May’s deal. If May’s deal fails, or if another vote on the same deal is prevented, another option is that parliament at some point takes control of Brexit and lawmakers seek a closer relationship with the EU, staying in the EU customs union. “When it becomes apparent that the only extension on offer from the EU is long, tortuous and with lots of conditions, I suspect enough MPs will get behind the deal for it to pass.” “The most likely outcome at this juncture is the deal going through,” Elliott said. “I think MPs (lawmakers) will see sense and approve the Meaningful Vote before March 29,” said Matthew Elliott, the head of the 2016 campaign for leaving the European Union, told Reuters after Bercow’s ruling. Many banks and investors still say her deal could be struck and approved, and cite previous EU crises such as the Greek debt crisis, where solutions were found at the eleventh hour. Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the European Research Group of eurosceptics in Britain’s House of Commons, signalled he could fall in behind the deal. To get her deal through parliament, May must win over at least 75 lawmakers: dozens of rebels in her own Conservative Party, some Labour lawmakers, and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which props up her minority government. Ultimately, May might have to offer a date for her own resignation to win enough Conservative votes for her deal. One possible way out for May would be a Brexit delay until the end of 2019, with an option to leave earlier should her deal get passed. Sources in Brussels said on Monday that Britain could ask for a Brexit delay even after the summit, suggesting that the decisive moment for Brexit might still be some days ahead. If May is looking for a legal fix, though, she could seek a change to the accompanying Political Declaration. The EU has repeatedly said the Withdrawal Agreement is the only deal on the table and May’s spokesman said Britain would not be seeking to renegotiate the most contentious part - the Irish border plan. May could discuss a delay and seek to get last-minute concessions at a March 21-22 EU summit, though with such chaos in London a crunch decision on Brexit might be delayed until the following week. She had warned lawmakers that unless they approved her divorce deal, Britain’s exit could face a long delay which many Brexiteers fear would mean Britain may never leave. Unless May can find a way around Speaker John Bercow’s ruling - such as adding an addendum or starting a new session of parliament - she will have to ask the EU to delay Brexit to avoid a no-deal exit on March 29.īrexit Secretary Steve Barclay on Tuesday played down the possibility of cutting the parliamentary session short in order to start a new one.īecause May must now spice any deal with additional legal and procedural innovation, Bercow’s ruling means she is likely to get just one more chance to put the deal to a vote. She had been intending to put the deal to another vote in parliament as early as this week, but the speaker ruled on Monday that she could not do so unless the deal was re-submitted in fundamentally different form. May’s divorce treaty, the product of more than two years of negotiations with the EU, was defeated by 149 votes on March 12 and by 230 votes on Jan. Graphic on no-deal Brexit probabilities from major banks: tmsnrt.rs/2UIhlyzġ) BREXIT WITH A DEAL - May gets her deal approved at a third attempt and the United Kingdom leaves in an orderly fashion after a modest delay. Most diplomats and investors think the United Kingdom faces three main options: leaving with a divorce deal, throwing the question back to the people or exiting without a deal. FILE PHOTO: Flags flutter outside the Houses of Parliament, ahead of a Brexit vote, in London, Britain March 13, 2019.
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